From Brutish to a Brouhaha: Shifting Winds and the Demographic Payback - December 2015

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FUNDAMENTALS Endnotes 1. 2. Please note that the works cited are far from exhaustive for the respective authors as well as for the literature itself. Under the current structure of the U.S. Social Security system, the age to receive full benefits (also known as “full retirement age” or “normal retirement age”) is 65 for workers born in 1937 or earlier. For workers born in 1938 through 1942, the age increases by two-month increments for each birth year (i.e., for birth year 1938, normal retirement age is 65 and two months). For birth years from 1943 through 1954, normal retirement age is 66.

For workers born in 1955 through 1959, the age increases by two-month increments for each birth year (i.e., for birth year 1955, normal retirement age is 66 and two months). For workers born in 1960 and later, normal retirement age is 67. References Allais, Maurice. 1947.

Economie et Intérêt. Paris: Imprimerie Nationale. Arnott, Robert. 2009.

“The ‘3-D’ Hurricane Force Headwind.” Research Affiliates Fundamentals, November. Available at https:/ /www.researchaffiliates.com/ Our%20Ideas/Insights/Fundamentals/Pages/F_2009_Nov_3D_Hurricane. aspx. Bodie, Zvi, and Dwight Crane. 1997.

“Personal Investing: Advice, Theory, and Evidence.” Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 53, no. 6 (November/December):13–23. Bodie, Zvi, Robert Merton, and William Samuelson.

1992. “Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice in a Lifecycle Model.” Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, vol. 16, nos.

3/4 (July–October):427–449. Bodie, Zvi, Jonathan Treussard, and Paul Willen. 2007. “The Theory of Life-Cycle Saving and Investing.” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Public Policy Discussion Paper No.

07-3 (May). Available at SSRN, http:/ /papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. cfm?abstract_id=1002388. Diamond, Peter. 1965.

“National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model.” American Economic Review, vol. 55, no. 5 (December):1126–1150. December 2015 Fehr, Hans, Sabine Jokisch, and Laurence Kotlikoff.

2007. “Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the United States, the European Union, Japan, and China.” Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, vol. 16 (October):133–193. Fisher, Irving.

1930. The Theory of Interest. New York: The Macmillan Company. Hobbes, Thomas.

(1651) 2013. Leviathan. Printed for Andrew Crooke, at the Green Dragon in St.

Paul’s Churchyard. Reprint: The Project Gutenberg EBook, produced by Edward White and David Widger. Hsu, Jason. 2011.

“The 3-D Hurricane and the New Normal.” Research Affiliates white paper, June. Available at https:/ /www.researchaffiliates.com/Production%20content%20library/201106_3D_Hurricane_and_New_Normal.pdf. Merton, Robert. 1971.

“Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-Time Model.” Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 3, no. 4 (December):373–413. Modigliani, Franco.

1970. “The Life-Cycle Hypothesis and Intercountry Differences in the Saving Ratio” in W.A. Eltis, M.F.G.

Scott, and J.N. Wolfe, eds., Induction, Growth, and Trade: Essays in Honour of Sir Roy Harrod. Oxford: Oxford University Press:197–225. ———.

1976. “Life-Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations.” American Economic Review, vol. 76, no.

3 (June):297–313. ———. 1998. “The Role of Intergenerational Transfers and Life Cycle Saving in the Accumulation of Wealth.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.

2, no. 2 (Spring): 15–40. Samuelson, Paul. 1958.

“An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest With or Without the Social Contrivance of Money.” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 66, no. 6 (December):467–482. Sobek, Matthew.

2006. Tables on Labor Force, in Historical Statistics of the United States, Earliest Times to the Present: Millennial Edition, vol. 2, edited by Susan Carter, Scott Gartner, Michael Haines, Alan Olmstead, Richard Sutch, and Gavin Wright. Cambridge University Press: New York, NY. Disclosures The material contained in this document is for general information purposes only.

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